The Next Bubble Is Already Here - Chamath Palihapitiya
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Private Equity Saturation, IPO Dysfunction, and the Competitive Future of SPACs
Discover why massive asset inflation in private equity reduces returns for new entrants, and learn how refined SPAC structures offer a necessary, low-cost counterbalance to the broken traditional IPO market.
Short Summary
- Massive capital inflows into Private Equity driven by suppressed interest rates have led to asset overpayment and diminished returns for later participants.
- Tracking the Distribution to Paid-in Capital (DPI) instead confirms that many PE partnerships have struggled to return cash recently.
- Refined SPAC structures, like Raptor 2, aim to provide a transparent, low-cost public listing option that aligns sponsor incentives better than IPOs or Direct Listings. This discussion details the lifecycle of asset class maturation, highlighting the critical need for functioning public exits to unlock superior growth for quality companies.
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Top Comments (10)
Chamath traded his reputation for SPAC scams.
Almost laughed out loud when I heard this on the first go of the podcast seeing how Chamath spinned the weakness of PEs/IPOs in why NOW is the time of course for SPACS (by the way he is raising one). You can't make this up.
Throw in Chamath's historical P&L in into any AI model to see the results. Here's a summary... As of mid‑2025 of 18 total SPAC / PIPE deals (10 led by Chamath + 8 PIPE deals he backed): 18 total SPAC deals (his SPACs + PIPEs): ≈ −14.0% average return. 10 SPACs he led: ≈ −26.2% average return. 6 of his SPACs that completed mergers: ≈ −44.9% average return. 8 PIPE deals: ≈ +1.34% average return.
Just a minor correction the 60/40 split is 60% equities and 40% bonds not the other way around
Scamath is back!
Chamath did you realize your SPACs weren't working well after the 3rd, or the 7th, or how about the 9th? How about after or before you made $750 million?
The compensation for SPAC 1/"raptor 1" was life changing for 1 Chamath Palihapitia
From the guy who said "short Google"
He has the ability to say the stupidest thing with utmost confidence
Full episode: https://youtu.be/ddAwgZ6ietc
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Top Comments (10)
Chamath traded his reputation for SPAC scams.
Almost laughed out loud when I heard this on the first go of the podcast seeing how Chamath spinned the weakness of PEs/IPOs in why NOW is the time of course for SPACS (by the way he is raising one). You can't make this up.
Throw in Chamath's historical P&L in into any AI model to see the results. Here's a summary... As of mid‑2025 of 18 total SPAC / PIPE deals (10 led by Chamath + 8 PIPE deals he backed): 18 total SPAC deals (his SPACs + PIPEs): ≈ −14.0% average return. 10 SPACs he led: ≈ −26.2% average return. 6 of his SPACs that completed mergers: ≈ −44.9% average return. 8 PIPE deals: ≈ +1.34% average return.
Just a minor correction the 60/40 split is 60% equities and 40% bonds not the other way around
Scamath is back!
Chamath did you realize your SPACs weren't working well after the 3rd, or the 7th, or how about the 9th? How about after or before you made $750 million?
The compensation for SPAC 1/"raptor 1" was life changing for 1 Chamath Palihapitia
From the guy who said "short Google"
He has the ability to say the stupidest thing with utmost confidence
Full episode: https://youtu.be/ddAwgZ6ietc