Bitcoin and the End of Quantitative Tightening
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Bitcoin Price Action vs. Quantitative Tightening End Date
Understand why the scheduled end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) might not immediately trigger a major Bitcoin rally, referencing historical precedent to set realistic expectations for Q4 maneuvering.
Short Summary
- The official end date for QT (December 1st) often lags the actual technical reversal date of the Federal Reserve balance sheet.
- Historical analysis of 2019 indicates Bitcoin dropped upon the QT surrender announcement but continued bleeding until the balance sheet reversal materialized months later.
- Expect necessary counter-trend rallies (like testing the 200-day MA) but the underlying macro environment suggests a continuation of bear market mechanics until true Quantitative Easing accelerates.
- The key determinant for a true market turn is not merely the end of QT, but when the Fed balance sheet significantly expands (explodes).
This analysis leverages the 2019 cycle structure to manage expectations around the end of monetary tightening, warning against premature bullishness based solely on schedule announcements.
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Top Comments (10)
My risk management strategy is gaslighting myself into thinking I never bought anything to begin with
i'm not tired anymore , I'm ded boss.
Retail will disappear in the next 2-3 years from this crypto market. 90% of altcoins will disappear too
We did have an altseason. You just need to invert the chart to see it.
Anyone who didn't sell ALTs in december 2024 is fooked now
By the time QE saves us, it will just be a normal bear market. I realized that months ago and sold all.
Into The Cryptoverse Premium SALE: https://intothecryptoverse.com
It would be a miracle if any altcoin survives the next cycle. I have become a TRUE believer in the bitcoin-only movement. Not even Eth is worth holding. I appreciate the investment lesson this cycle. 😩
6:47 “you could argue we haven’t even established the down trend line” terrifying words
Trade the market you have, not the market you want. Wise words
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Top Comments (10)
My risk management strategy is gaslighting myself into thinking I never bought anything to begin with
i'm not tired anymore , I'm ded boss.
Retail will disappear in the next 2-3 years from this crypto market. 90% of altcoins will disappear too
We did have an altseason. You just need to invert the chart to see it.
Anyone who didn't sell ALTs in december 2024 is fooked now
By the time QE saves us, it will just be a normal bear market. I realized that months ago and sold all.
Into The Cryptoverse Premium SALE: https://intothecryptoverse.com
It would be a miracle if any altcoin survives the next cycle. I have become a TRUE believer in the bitcoin-only movement. Not even Eth is worth holding. I appreciate the investment lesson this cycle. 😩
6:47 “you could argue we haven’t even established the down trend line” terrifying words
Trade the market you have, not the market you want. Wise words