Ohio State vs Michigan...Preview & Prediction - Josh Pate's College Football Show
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Analyzing the Ohio State vs. Michigan Rivalry Showdown
Discover the critical statistical clash defining the rivalry game—rushing yards correlation—and why Josh Pate ultimately picks Michigan to win despite the perceived talent gap.
Short Summary
- The outcome hinges on which team dominates rush yards, a metric that predicts the winner consistently since 2001.
- Ohio State holds high-level offensive metrics (Catbuster passes) and last year's painful loss may fuel an aggressive, pass-heavy offensive approach this time.
- Despite favoring Ohio State based on objective models and talent, the speaker predicts Michigan will win due to historical precedent in this "inexplicable" rivalry.
This preview breaks down key strength-on-strength matchups, focusing heavily on rushing statistics and expected offensive philosophies given the cold weather conditions expected in Ann Arbor.
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Top Comments (10)
I'm sick of the narrative that some of the media is throwing out there that this game doesn't matter. One of these teams could beat the other 1000 times in a row and this game would still matter every single year. Nothing matters more to these two teams and fan bases than winning this game.
Damn it, why couldn't you just pick OSU. *sigh*
NOOOOOOOOOO! (Michigan fan here)
Man when I brought up that the weather in Ann Arbor looked like it would be snowing to the plant guys in Brookville Ohio, they sighed immediately lol.
Thats sooooo messed up, you know EXACTLY what your doing!
Josh, you are the only sane person that has pointed out that snow DOES NOT impact passing THAT much. The 2021 game CJ Stroud had over 400 yards passing. Rain and wind is way worse. Nice that there are some intelligent people out there.
Ohio State:Playoffs Michigan: at home watching again. 😂
JOSH WHAT the HELL
Team with more rushing yards wins is such a bizarre thing to me. Yes, being effective at running improves offense and can absolutely help you win the game, but also when you're ahead you're running the ball significantly more to close the game out while the team losing has to throw more to catch up especially in multi-score differential games (which 13 of the games during this stretch were). The stat is so close to simply saying the team with the most points has won every time since 2001.
As a Buckeye fan, thank you Josh!!!!
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Top Comments (10)
I'm sick of the narrative that some of the media is throwing out there that this game doesn't matter. One of these teams could beat the other 1000 times in a row and this game would still matter every single year. Nothing matters more to these two teams and fan bases than winning this game.
Damn it, why couldn't you just pick OSU. *sigh*
NOOOOOOOOOO! (Michigan fan here)
Man when I brought up that the weather in Ann Arbor looked like it would be snowing to the plant guys in Brookville Ohio, they sighed immediately lol.
Thats sooooo messed up, you know EXACTLY what your doing!
Josh, you are the only sane person that has pointed out that snow DOES NOT impact passing THAT much. The 2021 game CJ Stroud had over 400 yards passing. Rain and wind is way worse. Nice that there are some intelligent people out there.
Ohio State:Playoffs Michigan: at home watching again. 😂
JOSH WHAT the HELL
Team with more rushing yards wins is such a bizarre thing to me. Yes, being effective at running improves offense and can absolutely help you win the game, but also when you're ahead you're running the ball significantly more to close the game out while the team losing has to throw more to catch up especially in multi-score differential games (which 13 of the games during this stretch were). The stat is so close to simply saying the team with the most points has won every time since 2001.
As a Buckeye fan, thank you Josh!!!!