Why the tech workforce is quietly splitting in two | Annual AI sentiment survey (Noam Segal)

Noam Segal is a longtime research leader across Airbnb, Meta, Twitter, Zapier, Intercom, and Figma, a certified coach, AI builder, and my community research lead. Together, we run the annual Tech Worker Sentiment Survey, now in its second year and one of the largest of its kind: a quantitative study of how people in tech actually feel about their jobs, AI, burnout, and the future of their careers. This year’s survey captured responses from thousands of workers across product, engineering, design, research, marketing, data, and sales, and the results are striking. *In our in-depth conversation, we discuss:* 1. Why AI has split the tech workforce almost exactly in half—one half that’s thriving, another that’s shaken 2. The four emotional archetypes defining tech workers right now (the Energized, the Conflicted, the Disoriented, and the Resentful) 3. Why burnout has jumped an alarming 11 points in a single year 4. Why nobody in tech would recommend their job to someone entering the industry today 5. The #1 fear in tech right now (it’s not job loss to AI) 6. Why managers are the single biggest lever for employee well-being 7. Concrete advice for what employees and leaders can do right now *Brought to you by:* WorkOS—Make your app enterprise-ready, with SSO, SCIM, RBAC, and more: https://workos.com/lenny Mercury—Radically different banking, now with Command: https://mercury.com/ *Episode transcript:* https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-tech-workers-actually-feel-about *Archive of all Lenny's Podcast transcripts:* https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/yxi4s2w998p1gvtpu4193/AMdNPR8AOw0lMklwtnC0TrQ?rlkey=j06x0nipoti519e0xgm23zsn9&st=ahz0fj11&dl=0 *Where to find Noam Segal:* • X: https://x.com/noamseg • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/noamsegal *Where to find Lenny:* • Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com • X: https://twitter.com/lennysan • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/ *In this episode, we cover:* (00:00) Introduction to Noam Segal (02:34) About the survey: methodology and scope (06:04) The core finding: AI has split the tech workforce in half (13:03) The AI identity stance (14:40) The four archetypes: Energized, Conflicted, Disoriented, Resentful (19:35) Burnout is surging (and why shipping faster is making it worse) (22:53) A glimmer of hope (24:55) Layoff worries (29:15) The career recommendation NPS score (36:45) The ladder metaphor: rungs disappearing beneath our feet (45:14) AI is making us faster, not better (52:53) The #1 fear: being squeezed to do more for the same pay (55:55) The emotional landscape and “smiling exhaustion” (01:01:02) Designers and researchers: the most negative group two years running (01:06:27) Who’s happiest (01:12:18) Managers: the single biggest lever on well-being (01:18:47) The industry is “chaotic” (01:24:53) What employees and leaders can do right now (01:31:32) AI guilt and closing thoughts *Referenced:* • How tech workers are feeling in 2026: a workforce splitting in two: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-tech-workers-are-feeling-in-2026 • How tech’s most resilient workers handle burnout: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-techs-most-resilient-workers • Please stop the AI Confidence Theater: https://www.elenaverna.com/p/please-stop-the-ai-confidence-theater • Velocity over everything: How Ramp became the fastest-growing SaaS startup of all time | Geoff Charles (VP of Product): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/velocity-over-everything-how-ramp • NPS Is The Worst: https://www.npsistheworst.com • The Terminator: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0088247 • Skynet: https://terminator.fandom.com/wiki/Skynet • Inside Devin: The world’s first autonomous AI engineer that’s set to write 50% of its company’s code by end of year | Scott Wu (CEO and co-founder of Cognition): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/inside-devin-scott-wu • Devin: https://devin.ai • An AI state of the union: We’ve passed the inflection point, dark factories are coming, and automation timelines | Simon Willison: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/an-ai-state-of-the-union • Redeploying Fable 5: https://www.anthropic.com/news/redeploying-fable-5 • Why half of product managers are in trouble | Nikhyl Singhal (Meta, Google): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/why-half-of-product-managers-are-in-trouble • Inside Linear: Building with taste, craft, and focus | Karri Saarinen (co-founder, designer, CEO): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/inside-linear-building-with-taste • Building beautiful products with Stripe’s Head of Design | Katie Dill (Stripe, Airbnb, Lyft): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/building-beautiful-products-with ...References continued at: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-tech-workers-actually-feel-about _Production and marketing by https://penname.co/._ _For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email [email protected]._ Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed.