State of AI in 2026: LLMs, Coding, Scaling Laws, China, Agents, GPUs, AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #490

Great video Lex but why is it so short?

I have a deal with myself at the gym - I can’t get off the treadmill until the video ends. Accidentally clicked this video, and now my legs have fallen off

Lex always pushes an audiobook instead of a podcast. 😹

How dare YouTube hide this diamond of a video from me for a single minute.

Hellllll yeah, back to the AI podcast days. Please do more technical conversations. Interviewing public figures and politicians might be great for reach, I get that. I’ve been listening since your very first podcasts and my favourite have always been conversations like these. More researchers, engineers, CTOs and the occasional philosopher

Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep490-sa See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc. 0:00 - Introduction 1:57 - China vs US: Who wins the AI race? 10:38 - ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini vs Grok: Who is winning? 21:38 - Best AI for coding 28:29 - Open Source vs Closed Source LLMs 40:08 - Transformers: Evolution of LLMs since 2019 48:05 - AI Scaling Laws: Are they dead or still holding? 1:04:12 - How AI is trained: Pre-training, Mid-training, and Post-training 1:37:18 - Post-training explained: Exciting new research directions in LLMs 1:58:11 - Advice for beginners on how to get into AI development & research 2:21:03 - Work culture in AI (72+ hour weeks) 2:24:49 - Silicon Valley bubble 2:28:46 - Text diffusion models and other new research directions 2:34:28 - Tool use 2:38:44 - Continual learning 2:44:06 - Long context 2:50:21 - Robotics 2:59:31 - Timeline to AGI 3:06:47 - Will AI replace programmers? 3:25:18 - Is the dream of AGI dying? 3:32:07 - How AI will make money? 3:36:29 - Big acquisitions in 2026 3:41:01 - Future of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI, Meta 3:53:35 - Manhattan Project for AI 4:00:10 - Future of NVIDIA, GPUs, and AI compute clusters 4:08:15 - Future of human civilization *Transcript:* https://lexfridman.com/ai-sota-2026-transcript *Correction:* Here's an updated image listing a collection of recent open & closed AI models with some improvements & fixes: https://lexfridman.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ai_models_2025.png *CONTACT LEX:* *Feedback* - give feedback to Lex: https://lexfridman.com/survey *AMA* - submit questions, videos or call-in: https://lexfridman.com/ama *Hiring* - join our team: https://lexfridman.com/hiring *Other* - other ways to get in touch: https://lexfridman.com/contact *EPISODE LINKS:* Nathan's X: https://x.com/natolambert Nathan's Blog: https://interconnects.ai Nathan's Website: https://natolambert.com Nathan's YouTube: https://youtube.com/@natolambert Nathan's GitHub: https://github.com/natolambert Nathan's Book: https://rlhfbook.com Sebastian's X: https://x.com/rasbt Sebastian's Blog: https://magazine.sebastianraschka.com Sebastian's Website: https://sebastianraschka.com Sebastian's YouTube: https://youtube.com/@SebastianRaschka Sebastian's GitHub: https://github.com/rasbt Sebastian's Books: Build a Large Language Model (From Scratch): https://manning.com/books/build-a-large-language-model-from-scratch Build a Reasoning Model (From Scratch): https://manning.com/books/build-a-reasoning-model-from-scratch *SPONSORS:* To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts: *Box:* Intelligent content management platform. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/box-ep490-sa *Quo:* Phone system (calls, texts, contacts) for businesses. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/quo-ep490-sa *UPLIFT Desk:* Standing desks and office ergonomics. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/uplift_desk-ep490-sa *Fin:* AI agent for customer service. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/fin-ep490-sa *Shopify:* Sell stuff online. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/shopify-ep490-sa *CodeRabbit:* AI-powered code reviews. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/coderabbit-ep490-sa *LMNT:* Zero-sugar electrolyte drink mix. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/lmnt-ep490-sa *Perplexity:* AI-powered answer engine. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/perplexity-ep490-sa

wow... 4.30 hours! that's quite the video.

man ! we missed this long form of Deep Dive Technica into LLM ! love you brother

I started working with AI last year by getting an NVIDIA DGX spark. My sons and I took Python coding classes over last summer. We are developing a Llama model for my business to submit data to multiple platforms we work on. It is going well and has been a learning experience.

Dear Lex Fridman — I first found your long-form interviews through your conversations with chess minds I’ve respected for years, and I stayed because your work has a rare quality: it makes people think without making them feel preached at. In a world optimized for outrage and speed, you’ve chosen depth, patience, and real curiosity. The questions are technical when they should be technical, human when they should be human — and the tone is steady enough that the truth has room to show itself. That’s not just content; it’s craft, and it’s service. Thank you for building a place on the internet where nuance still survives. If there were a serious award for information stewardship — for turning noise into understanding — you’d be at the top of the list. With respect and gratitude from Malaysia — from a fellow AI enthusiast, chess player, and grappler.