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Study Predicts Humans Will Go Extinct in 314 Years, Let's Discuss

2025-11-02 Science & Technology
144.7k
8.6k
3.1k
Anton Petrov
Anton Petrov
1.6m subscribers

Deconstructing the Flawed 314-Year Human Extinction Forecast

Deconstruct a highly sensational demographic study predicting immediate human extinction to understand why faulty extrapolation leads to extreme, incorrect results based on unstable short-term data.

Short Summary

  • Identify the core mathematical flaw in the 314-year extinction forecast: pure extrapolation of a short, unusual trend.
  • Compare the study's shaky foundation against established reports from agencies like the UN, which predict a peak and slow decline.
  • Recognize why using unstable data points, like fertility rates during global crises, invalidates long-term modeling conclusions.
  • This video analyzes the methodology used by Swanson and Tamman, demonstrating how sophisticated terminology can support scientifically unsound conclusions if core assumptions are ignored.

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Description

Support this channel on Patreon to help me make this a full time job: https://www.patreon.com/whatdamath (Unreleased videos, extra footage, DMs, no ads) Alternatively, PayPal donations can be sent here: http://paypal.me/whatdamath Get a Wonderful Person Tee: https://teespring.com/stores/whatdamath More cool designs are on Amazon: https://amzn.to/3QFIrFX Hello and welcome! My name is Anton and in this video, we will talk about a bizarre study that predicts human extinction in 314 years Links: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/394805613_Human_Extinction_from_a_Probabilistic_Demographic_Perspective #extinction #population #humans 0:00 Map of the world population 0:30 Human extinction based on demographics - only 314 years left? 1:30 Who wrote the study 2:20 Methodology used 5:05 Results 6:05 Why this is bad science 8:20 Other predictions for comparison 11:25 Rate of fertility issue 12:20 Issues with this study and conclusions Enjoy and please subscribe Bitcoin/Ethereum to spare? Donate them here to help this channel grow! bc1qnkl3nk0zt7w0xzrgur9pnkcduj7a3xxllcn7d4 or ETH: 0x60f088B10b03115405d313f964BeA93eF0Bd3DbF Thank you to all Patreon supporters of this channel Special thanks also goes to all the wonderful supporters of the channel through YouTube Memberships Credit: Max Roser; population data from UN Population Division - https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-cartogram CC BY 4.0 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population#/media/File:Global_population_cartogram.png Bdm25 CC BY SA 3.0 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth#/media/File:Human_population_since_1800.png Our world in data - https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth#/media/File:Population-growth-rate-2023-OWID.png CC BY 4.0 Pharexia - Growthbydevelopedvslessdeveloped.jpg CC BY-SA 4.0 Licenses used: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ and relevant Creative Commons licenses

Top Comments (10)

@ShrimpTreadmill 2025-11-02

This has the same energy as the study that looked at the increasing performance of athletes competing in the Olympics and determined that by 2050, people would be completing the 100-meter dash at something like 50 mph.

2.7k 159 replies
@FortitudineVincimus 2025-11-02

It could happen, since they weaponized stupidity.

1.3k 100 replies
@johndoobie831 2025-11-02

Only 314 years left? Damn i better get on cleaning out the garage.

1.2k 26 replies
@Bedonkabonk 2025-11-03

When my blood pressure was high, I took steps to lower it. I made a graph in Excel that tracked the decrease. When I extrapolated my progress, within a couple of months, if I kept my progress apace, my blood pressure would have reduced from high to healthy to low to zero.

766 40 replies
@JamokeGuy 2025-11-02

The problem with humanity is that our genius has restrictions but our stupidity has no limits. LOL

765 75 replies
@Walter-t2j 2025-11-03

As cats cannot open food cans they highly dissaprove of this scenario

690 39 replies
@TheRaspberryFlavored 2025-11-03

It seems like it was a study done to mock the current state of published scientific studies, as if to announce “real statistics are easily manipulated to form ridiculous conclusions, and the public will believe them if the results are sensational enough.”

224 17 replies
@TNM001 2025-11-02

ah yea, as one comedian once said: - see, analysts see you eat soup, go and calculate how much soup you will eat for your lifetime and advise companies to start production. they didn't see you go "bahh, i hate soup" when they were gone, but now you will have to eat all the soup they ordered. btw...314...what a strange PI coincidence...color me suspicious.

151 5 replies
@tsz5868 2025-11-04

The streets are quite void where I live. The elementary schools that used to be full of kids some decades ago now are half empty. Big cities are encircled by enourmous swats of land where anyone lives. The couples I know are struggling to have one kid after five years of marry; Two kids are a full house now.

27 7 replies
@johnderat2652 2025-11-04

"The future is invented every second. Invent a better one." -Hariton Seldon

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