Study Predicts Humans Will Go Extinct in 314 Years, Let's Discuss
Deconstructing the Flawed 314-Year Human Extinction Forecast
Deconstruct a highly sensational demographic study predicting immediate human extinction to understand why faulty extrapolation leads to extreme, incorrect results based on unstable short-term data.
Short Summary
- Identify the core mathematical flaw in the 314-year extinction forecast: pure extrapolation of a short, unusual trend.
- Compare the study's shaky foundation against established reports from agencies like the UN, which predict a peak and slow decline.
- Recognize why using unstable data points, like fertility rates during global crises, invalidates long-term modeling conclusions.
- This video analyzes the methodology used by Swanson and Tamman, demonstrating how sophisticated terminology can support scientifically unsound conclusions if core assumptions are ignored.
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Top Comments (10)
This has the same energy as the study that looked at the increasing performance of athletes competing in the Olympics and determined that by 2050, people would be completing the 100-meter dash at something like 50 mph.
It could happen, since they weaponized stupidity.
Only 314 years left? Damn i better get on cleaning out the garage.
When my blood pressure was high, I took steps to lower it. I made a graph in Excel that tracked the decrease. When I extrapolated my progress, within a couple of months, if I kept my progress apace, my blood pressure would have reduced from high to healthy to low to zero.
The problem with humanity is that our genius has restrictions but our stupidity has no limits. LOL
As cats cannot open food cans they highly dissaprove of this scenario
It seems like it was a study done to mock the current state of published scientific studies, as if to announce “real statistics are easily manipulated to form ridiculous conclusions, and the public will believe them if the results are sensational enough.”
ah yea, as one comedian once said: - see, analysts see you eat soup, go and calculate how much soup you will eat for your lifetime and advise companies to start production. they didn't see you go "bahh, i hate soup" when they were gone, but now you will have to eat all the soup they ordered. btw...314...what a strange PI coincidence...color me suspicious.
The streets are quite void where I live. The elementary schools that used to be full of kids some decades ago now are half empty. Big cities are encircled by enourmous swats of land where anyone lives. The couples I know are struggling to have one kid after five years of marry; Two kids are a full house now.
"The future is invented every second. Invent a better one." -Hariton Seldon
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Top Comments (10)
This has the same energy as the study that looked at the increasing performance of athletes competing in the Olympics and determined that by 2050, people would be completing the 100-meter dash at something like 50 mph.
It could happen, since they weaponized stupidity.
Only 314 years left? Damn i better get on cleaning out the garage.
When my blood pressure was high, I took steps to lower it. I made a graph in Excel that tracked the decrease. When I extrapolated my progress, within a couple of months, if I kept my progress apace, my blood pressure would have reduced from high to healthy to low to zero.
The problem with humanity is that our genius has restrictions but our stupidity has no limits. LOL
As cats cannot open food cans they highly dissaprove of this scenario
It seems like it was a study done to mock the current state of published scientific studies, as if to announce “real statistics are easily manipulated to form ridiculous conclusions, and the public will believe them if the results are sensational enough.”
ah yea, as one comedian once said: - see, analysts see you eat soup, go and calculate how much soup you will eat for your lifetime and advise companies to start production. they didn't see you go "bahh, i hate soup" when they were gone, but now you will have to eat all the soup they ordered. btw...314...what a strange PI coincidence...color me suspicious.
The streets are quite void where I live. The elementary schools that used to be full of kids some decades ago now are half empty. Big cities are encircled by enourmous swats of land where anyone lives. The couples I know are struggling to have one kid after five years of marry; Two kids are a full house now.
"The future is invented every second. Invent a better one." -Hariton Seldon