Navigate Select ESC Close

Bitcoin: The Bulls Vs. The Bears

2025-11-17 Entertainment
131.5k
7.6k
777
Benjamin Cowen
Benjamin Cowen
995.0k subscribers

Reconciling Bitcoin's Bullish Cycle Timing Against Apathy-Driven Bearish Scenarios

Discover the historical timing framework that points to a Q4 2025 top, and learn how the current lack of euphoria might force a reconciliation toward a shallower, 2019-style market correction in 2026.

Short Summary

  • The cyclical expectation is for a top in Q4 of the post-halving year, which points toward October or December 2025.
  • The primary divergence from historical peaks is the observable apathy; no major euphoria has accompanied the current price levels.
  • Time-based metrics, particularly breaking below the 50-week moving average late in the cycle, support the bearish case for a 2026 downturn.
  • A potential reconciliation suggests the 2026 bear market might be a 2019 analogue, resulting in a 50% drop rather than the standard 70–80% drawdown seen during euphoric peaks.
  • The analysis uses indicators like MicroStrategy correlation and Federal Reserve policy shifts (like QT ending) to create possible outlines for future price action.

This discussion examines the conflict between Bitcoin's strict four-year cycle timing and current investor positioning characterized by disinterest. Understanding both the historical precedent pointing toward a peak soon and the anomaly of current apathy allows for a more flexible approach to 2026 price projections.

Unlock all features

FREE: Get instant access to 10 AI summaries, chats, or transcripts per day.

Description

Let's talk about the bull and bear case for Bitcoin and one way we may be able to reconcile the two. 0:00 - INTRO and objectives 4:42 - Historical top timing framework 8:45 - Missing euphoria and 2019 comparisons 16:08 - Macro policy and 2026 scenarios 27:54 - Time-based metrics and moving averages 34:10 - MicroStrategy as proxy and patterns 38:46 - Euphoria timing and indicators 43:58 - ISM, retail apathy and policy path 53:25 - Dot-com analogy and closing thoughts  57:25 - OUTRO Into The Cryptoverse Premium SALE: https://intothecryptoverse.com Into The Cryptoverse Newsletter: https://newsletter.intothecryptoverse.com/ LIFETIME OPTION: https://intothecryptoverse.com/product/subscription-to-the-premium-list-lifetime/ Alternative Option: https://www.patreon.com/intothecryptoverse Merch: https://store.intothecryptoverse.com/ Disclaimer: The information presented within this video is NOT financial advice. Telegram: https://t.me/intocryptoverse Twitter: https://twitter.com/intocryptoverse TikTok: tiktok.com/@benjamincowencrypto Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/bjcowen/ Discord: https://discord.gg/UGwc6eR Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/intothecryptoverse Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/intothecryptoverse/ Website: https://intothecryptoverse.com/

Top Comments (10)

@benjaminjcowen 2025-11-17

Into The Cryptoverse Premium SALE: https://intothecryptoverse.com

38 10 replies
@butters1273 2025-11-17

No longer tired boss! I died!

965 30 replies
@sandag202 2025-11-17

The Bears vs The Bears

572 5 replies
@mariusgodeanu5069 2025-11-17

BEN you listened about moving your screen 💪💪

643 12 replies
@bilalsalim1171 2025-11-18

I swear this is the only youtuber worth listening to not just because of great analysis but because you can tell he doesnt flip flop nor do you smell any BS like other youtubers

82 4 replies
@bartolomeoargentino6369 2025-11-17

"there is a 60% possibility the top was in october" *proceeds to list 100% reasons for the top in october*

345 3 replies
@sdb816 2025-11-18

Congrats to all who got in early and made some decent profits. I lost money, but learned a lot. Thanks Ben for the insights. I’ll be ready next time.

41 2 replies
@scottellis8689 2025-11-17

This was one of your best. Thanks Ben.

55
@kagrossett 2025-11-17

Right on time sir. We need your guidance, oh wise one

42
@daniellewalker4588 2025-11-17

Thks for having moved yr screen!

48

Unlock the Data Inside
Turn Videos into Knowledge

  • Get FREE 10/day: transcripts, summaries, chats
  • Chat with videos, export text & PDF
  • $1 free API credit for RAG, chatbots & research

Free forever plan • All features unlocked

App screenshot