My First Winning Agentic AI Trading Strategy On Polymarket

be careful with adverse selection (specially if you do market making), backtesting market making will always be unrealistic, also verify that your polymarket data is tick by tick and has book depth. Fair value strategy will fire many signals when there is market manipulation

Objective Conclusion: 1. The idea presented in the video is theoretically sound. Buying at a discount to fair value via a maker bid may have positive expected value (EV). 2. However, our current implementation/edge model has not demonstrated this. The NO signals, in particular, are poor. 3. The video hasn’t proven profitability. It lacks a public fill log, an adverse-selection report, and a full trade history. Based on our data, the claim that “this is a profitable bot” hasn’t been confirmed yet. 4. It cannot be deployed live. It’s too early, even with a small capital. 5. We can only continue this as a research project. The next reasonable test: disable NO, tighten the filter for YES, and continue paper trading for another 24–48 hours. If YES doesn’t at least reach a stable profit over 50–100 fills, we should either abandon the idea or completely overhaul the model. In short: the method isn’t a bad idea, but right now it isn’t working. The “info-gypsy” risk associated with the strategy is high.

What about the gtc giveaway

Are you gonna start paying the $150 Chainlink asks from first of July?

great video! getting a bunch of (good) historical data is a pain in the butt!