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What are we scaling?

2025-12-23 Science & Technology
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Dwarkesh Patel
Dwarkesh Patel
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Description

Read the transcript here: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/thoughts-on-ai-progress-dec-2025 Toby Ord: How Well Does RL Scale https://www.tobyord.com/writing/how-well-does-rl-scale Beren Millidge: Most Algorithmic Progress is Data Progress by https://www.beren.io/2025-08-02-Most-Algorithmic-Progress-is-Data-Progress/ TIMESTAMPS 00:00:13 What are we scaling? 00:03:11 The value of human labor 00:05:19 Economic diffusion lag is cope 00:06:36 Goal-post shifting is justified 00:08:23 RL scaling 00:09:33 Broadly deployed intelligence explosion

Top Comments (10)

@hinton4214 2025-12-23

We are scaling Dwarkesh beard

663 7 replies
@squamish4244 2025-12-24

We are scaling Dwarkesh speed of talking.

223 5 replies
@Neomadra 2025-12-23

I really appreciate that you're giving your honest opinions even though you have so many AI sponsorships

172 6 replies
@yizhizhu5154 2025-12-23

We are scaling uploads boys

155 1 replies
@lennymerle6392 2025-12-23

I have to admit, Dwarkesh has really impressed me lately. I actually unsubscribed a while back, he came across as an OpenAI fanboy just parroting whatever narrative their guests would feed him. I never would have imagined this kind of comeback. He's now one of the few people in this space with a genuinely unique perspective and worldview on AI. Huge respect for the growth

75 6 replies
@levimccallum9006 2025-12-24

Dwarkesh got one shotted by Richard Sutton

55
@jurgengravestein 2025-12-24

In one year Dwarkesh went from totally AGI pilled to pretty much an AI skeptic. Appreciate the intellectual honesty.

51 2 replies
@BTC_21M 2025-12-24

We are scaling ignoring The Bitter Lesson.

43
@Jack-o8p3s 2025-12-23

It’s videos like these that make me believe that common sense actually requires extremely high bandwidth and processing power, something that dwarkesh possesses

27
@clintonkeith5333 2025-12-24

I had to check the playback speed to make sure it wasn’t set to 1.5x

4

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