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Megaconstellations May Be Just 2 Days Away From Causing a Kessler Syndrome

2026-01-01 Science & Technology
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Anton Petrov
Anton Petrov
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Support this channel on Patreon to help me make this a full time job: https://www.patreon.com/whatdamath (Unreleased videos, extra footage, DMs, no ads) Alternatively, PayPal donations can be sent here: http://paypal.me/whatdamath Get a Wonderful Person Tee: https://teespring.com/stores/whatdamath More cool designs are on Amazon: https://amzn.to/3QFIrFX Hello and welcome! My name is Anton and in this video, we will talk about the Kessler syndrome and a new unnerving study about megaconstellations Links: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.09643 #satellite #megaconstellation #science Other links: https://youtu.be/Vcf6a1X6T_4 https://youtu.be/VYBPz9UDHiM https://youtu.be/iEAp_6Jo5O4 https://youtu.be/NuxXsagVZ_s 0:00 Space trash and Kessler syndrome 1:55 Megaconstellations and 100,000 maneuvers 3:55 Uncontrollable events and CRASH metric - 2.8 days! 6:20 How control could be lost 8:55 CRASH clock and the classical Kessler syndrome 9:50 Anti satellite weapons 10:25 New policies may not be enough 11:20 Conclusions and implications Enjoy and please subscribe Bitcoin/Ethereum to spare? Donate them here to help this channel grow! bc1qnkl3nk0zt7w0xzrgur9pnkcduj7a3xxllcn7d4 or ETH: 0x60f088B10b03115405d313f964BeA93eF0Bd3DbF Thank you to all Patreon supporters of this channel Special thanks also goes to all the wonderful supporters of the channel through YouTube Memberships Licenses used: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ and relevant Creative Commons licenses

Top Comments (10)

@PIW_Charles 2026-01-01

This feels like one of those problems we already understand well enough to act on, but keep Postponing because responsibility is diffuse. If companies can afford to launch and operate Megaconstellations, they should also be required to fund end-of-life Deorbiting, active debris removal, and shared cleanup infrastructure. Right now the incentives favor adding objects faster than we remove them. Kessler syndrome isn’t a mystery, it’s a predictable outcome of treating orbit like a free dumping ground. If access to space is a Shared resource, then stewardship has to be part of the Cost of entry.

5.4k 410 replies
@kingabomination 2026-01-02

$100,000 fine, so they saved money not spending several million dollars to recover the satellite. that'll teach em.

2.6k 69 replies
@ArcherDiesel1 2026-01-01

Just like with mining, corporations take the profits and leave the cleanup to the tax payers.

1.4k 92 replies
@bobbun9630 2026-01-02

It seems unlikely to me that anyone who can afford to put something into orbit cares much about a $150k fine.

1.3k 36 replies
@theanarchywizard 2026-01-02

The fine has to be more expensive than properly decommissioning the satellite. The companies will always default to the cheaper option.

934 29 replies
@wcmatthysen 2026-01-01

It's the "yeah, not my problem, the next guy will fix it" situation, but compounded over decades.

686 38 replies
@koraamis5568 2026-01-02

Good thing that world leaders are this total responsible and selfless humble people who will act on this with integrity

413 19 replies
@anthonykeller5120 2026-01-03

In the 1970’s I worked with software engineer who once worked at JPL. His last job at JPL was to create a database to keep track of all the human introduced junk in orbit around the Earth. He told me everyone was ‘shattered’ by the amount of junk actually in orbit then. People knew it was going to be a problem, but were stunned by the amount of junk at that time. Of course this video shows how bad it has gotten since then.

408 10 replies
@Kaitlyy 2026-01-04

I love how basically every single industry has been developing their own torment nexus for the past several decades because it's really super profitable for like 8 guys. Suddenly, as quick as an elderly person carefully navigating up a stairway, and as unforeseeable as the pain from slapping your own face, now all the practically postmarked side effects of constructing every single torment nexus is about to begin concurrently. To make things better, not only did the 8 guys not plan and prepare for stopping or at least mitigating the torment (because it would have slightly reduced profits) they are continuing to build the torment nexus for continuing profits! We truly live in the bestest of timelines, don't forget to carry around a tape recorder so you can record dramatic diary entries that ultimately culminate towards a climactic death soundbyte for the wasteland survivors of our future.

147 17 replies
@MattyPuff. 2026-01-04

The fact that this video came out as Spainsat NG-II got hit by debris, and starlink announced retreating half of their fleet into lower orbit so that if they crash, they burn up in months instead of years... Your timing is something else Anton...

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