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Howard Marks Warning: Why I'm Getting Out Now

2025-08-22 Entertainment
633.4k
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My First Million
My First Million
913.0k subscribers

Decoding Investment Cycles and Contrarian Principles with Howard Marks

Learn how legendary investor Howard Marks avoids common pitfalls by assessing the market cycle, ensuring you zig when the herd zags, even when fearful.

Short Summary

  • Determine your necessary risk posture using the aggressive-to-defensive continuum.
  • Recognize that historical averages obscure high volatility; the norm is rarely the average outcome.
  • Identify asset class imbalances by observing investor behavior (greed versus fear).
  • Understand that being right too early is the same as being wrong.

Howard Marks advises that investing success relies less on predicting the future and more on understanding where we stand in the current market cycle to improve the odds. He stresses controlling investor behavior—fear and greed—to find opportunities when others panic or become overly complacent. This conversation explores using historical rhymed patterns to navigate extremes without succumbing to emotional decision-making.

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Description

*Want our 9 investment principles playbook? Get it here: https://clickhubspot.com/fdg* Episode 738: Sam Parr ( https://x.com/theSamParr ) and Shaan Puri ( https://x.com/ShaanVP ) talk to Howard Marks about principles of value investing. — Show Notes: (0:00) The S&P 500 (11:48) Legendary memos (18:45) Investing without emotion (29:32) You can't raise money in a crisis (36:05) Recommended Reading (41:49) Higher than average returns — Links: • Oaktree - https://www.oaktreecapital.com/ • Memos - https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memos • The Most Important Thing - https://tinyurl.com/47amrzhj • Mastering The Market Cycle - https://tinyurl.com/mr33mjbr • Devil Take The Hindmost - https://tinyurl.com/yx9ce7xn • A Short History of Financial Euphoria - https://tinyurl.com/uavcnunx • Winning a Loser’s Game - https://tinyurl.com/55ch2rh9 • Mistakes Were Made (But Not By Me) - https://tinyurl.com/yc85ek63 — Check Out Shaan's Stuff: • Shaan's weekly email - https://www.shaanpuri.com • Visit https://www.somewhere.com/mfm to hire worldwide talent like Shaan and get $500 off for being an MFM listener. Hire developers, assistants, marketing pros, sales teams and more for 80% less than US equivalents. • Mercury - Need a bank for your company? Go check out Mercury (mercury.com). Shaan uses it for all of his companies! Mercury is a financial technology company, not an FDIC-insured bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column, N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust, Members FDIC — Check Out Sam's Stuff: • Hampton - https://www.joinhampton.com/ • Ideation Bootcamp - https://www.ideationbootcamp.co/ • Copy That - https://copythat.com • Hampton Wealth Survey - https://joinhampton.com/wealth • Sam’s List - http://samslist.co/ My First Million is a HubSpot Original Podcast // Brought to you by HubSpot Media // Production by Arie Desormeaux // Editing by Ezra Bakker Trupiano

Top Comments (10)

@PBKiteboarding 2025-09-09

When Buffet says something like: I don't try to jump 7ft fences, I walk over the 1 foot ones.

362 8 replies
@mihaylets 2025-08-25

Marks is an icon in Investing world! Thanks you a lot!

250 5 replies
@ABC456-t8v 2025-08-23

To have Howard Marks in your YouTube channel is an honour, I mean how many individual financial YouTubers managed to get him on their channels?

245 4 replies
@Sponge247 2025-10-19

Why is this title "Why im getting out now" seens hyperbolic

222 9 replies
@greglaux8766 2025-09-14

“When the time comes to buy, you won’t want to.” Outstanding insight.

183 9 replies
@accidentally_here 2025-08-23

I could listen to Howard's insights all day. In my opinion, one of the wisest and most humble people in the business. Thank you guys👏

161 5 replies
@MyFirstMillionPod 2025-08-22

*Want our 9 investment principles playbook? Get it here:* https://clickhubspot.com/vjd

47 10 replies
@russrands5006 2025-08-22

Howard Marks dressed down? Somewhere a Bloomberg terminal just shed a tear.

29
@NickBrunker-v8w 2026-02-06

*After spending two years paying off all my debt, I'm now in a position to put away £16660 a month. So the plan is £6660 in an emergency fund and invest the remaining £10k.*

26 1 replies
@amolnjain 2025-08-26

Quote : Being too far ahead of time is indistinguishable from being wrong😂

11

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