The Redistricting Twist No One Saw Coming (w/ Dave Wasserman)
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Democrats Narrow the Gap in the Mid-Decade Redistricting War
Discover how recent Democratic victories in key states like Utah, California, and Virginia are surprisingly neutralizing Republican redistricting advantages for the 2026 House battle. Learn which crucial swing competitive states will ultimately decide the majority.
Short Summary
- Experts projected Republicans could net 5 to 8 seats via redistricting; this is now estimated as only a low single-digit gain.
- California's Prop 50 victory guarantees Democrats 3–5 seat gains while shoring up their own vulnerable incumbents.
- Virginia Democrats' recent election sweep enables them to likely redraw maps to favor a 9-2 delegation split.
- Utah’s court ruled against partisan maps, awarding Salt Lake City a favorable congressional seat, creating a likely 3-1 Democratic advantage.
- The outcome in competitive states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Michigan remains the primary determinant for House control.
This discussion features Tim Miller interviewing Dave Wasserman, Senior Editor at Cook Political Report, focusing on the shifting statewide redistricting landscape. We track the string of recent Democratic wins that mitigate earlier Republican advantages, analyzing how state courts and specific voter behavior influence the playing field for 2026. These adjustments make securing the House majority vastly more manageable for Democrats than previously forecasted.
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Top Comments (10)
More proof that local and state Democrats are willing to fight. It is the DC leadership establishment that is the problem. We will see what the primaries bring.
We collected signatures in Utah and put gerrymandering on the ballot in 2018. It passed and Republicans have been scheming and fighting the will of the voters since. It’s alarming how little the media has covered Utahs redistricting fight. It’s amazing how long Utah republicans been able to legally string this out and use unfair maps. Huge win… finally!
Such karmic reciprocation if Dems end up gaining more seats than the initiating cheaters.
Re: The Texas gerrymander scam. I'm still hoping that this will backfire on them and the GOP will *lose* a couple of those new seats because they made some, now invalid, assumptions about Hispanic voting patterns.
Utahn here. The League of Women Voters and the Mormon Women for Ethical Government map was selected in spite of the man- splaining Republican's confidence they could keep Utah's map looking like a toddler's drawing. Let's hear it for the girls!!!🥳👏👍
Just shows that Republicans know their policies are not popular. Otherwise they wouldn't need to try to cheat. sickening.
I lived in Utah in 2018, and waited in line for 5 hours to vote for that independent redistricting commission. Now 7 years later it's about to finally have an actual map get used.
Go Blue Utah! This is a long time coming for the Beehive State. 💙 🇺🇸 💪
Ohio’s state legislature has refused court orders(three times)to change their unconstitutional districting maps. They don’t even honor the court or Ohio’s constitution. Ohio used to be purple, let’s change it from Red to Blue!
The fact that voters still think that MAGA is not a fascist movement indicates why US education outcomes are low.
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Top Comments (10)
More proof that local and state Democrats are willing to fight. It is the DC leadership establishment that is the problem. We will see what the primaries bring.
We collected signatures in Utah and put gerrymandering on the ballot in 2018. It passed and Republicans have been scheming and fighting the will of the voters since. It’s alarming how little the media has covered Utahs redistricting fight. It’s amazing how long Utah republicans been able to legally string this out and use unfair maps. Huge win… finally!
Such karmic reciprocation if Dems end up gaining more seats than the initiating cheaters.
Re: The Texas gerrymander scam. I'm still hoping that this will backfire on them and the GOP will *lose* a couple of those new seats because they made some, now invalid, assumptions about Hispanic voting patterns.
Utahn here. The League of Women Voters and the Mormon Women for Ethical Government map was selected in spite of the man- splaining Republican's confidence they could keep Utah's map looking like a toddler's drawing. Let's hear it for the girls!!!🥳👏👍
Just shows that Republicans know their policies are not popular. Otherwise they wouldn't need to try to cheat. sickening.
I lived in Utah in 2018, and waited in line for 5 hours to vote for that independent redistricting commission. Now 7 years later it's about to finally have an actual map get used.
Go Blue Utah! This is a long time coming for the Beehive State. 💙 🇺🇸 💪
Ohio’s state legislature has refused court orders(three times)to change their unconstitutional districting maps. They don’t even honor the court or Ohio’s constitution. Ohio used to be purple, let’s change it from Red to Blue!
The fact that voters still think that MAGA is not a fascist movement indicates why US education outcomes are low.