Sarah Paine — How Mao conquered China (lecture & interview)

In this episode, Prof Paine looks at Maoist China. How did Mao go from military genius to peacetime disaster? How did the patriotic hero inflict history’s worst catastrophe on China? How can someone shrewd enough to win a civil war outnumbered 5 to 1 make decisions like "let's have peasants make iron in their backyards" and "let's kill all the birds"? Lecture is followed by a Q&A with me. The first nationwide famine in Chinese history; Mao's lasting influence on other insurgencies; broken promises to Chinese minorities and the peasantry; what Taiwan means. Huge thanks to Substack for hosting this! 𝐄𝐏𝐈𝐒𝐎𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐊𝐒 * Transcript: https://www.dwarkesh.com/sarah-paine-china * Spotify: http://spoti.fi/3APeQ3L * Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dwarkesh-podcast/id1516093381 𝐒𝐏𝐎𝐍𝐒𝐎𝐑𝐒 * Today’s episode is brought to you by Scale AI. Scale partners with the U.S. government to fuel America’s AI advantage through their data foundry. Scale recently introduced Defense Llama, Scale's latest solution available for military personnel. With Defense Llama, military personnel can harness the power of AI to plan military or intelligence operations and understand adversary vulnerabilities. If you’re interested in learning more on how Scale powers frontier AI capabilities, go to https://scale.com/dwarkesh. To sponsor a future episode, visit https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/advertise 𝐒𝐀𝐑𝐀𝐇'𝐒 𝐁𝐎𝐎𝐊𝐒 * "The Wars for Asia, 1911–1949" https://www.amazon.com/Wars-Asia-1911-1949-S-Paine-ebook/dp/B0096R1NZ4 * "The Japanese Empire: Grand Strategy from the Meiji Restoration to the Pacific War" https://www.amazon.com/Japanese-Empire-Strategy-Restoration-Pacific/dp/1107676169 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒 00:00:00 - Intro 00:00:47 - Disclaimer 00:03:13 - Clausewitz, Sun Tzu, Thayer Mahan, Corbett 00:09:31 - The 1911 Revolution and the Civil War 00:14:27 - Clausewitz on Mao 00:15:47 - Mao the propagandist 00:24:35 - Mao the social scientist 00:29:51 - Mao the military leader 00:40:17 - Mao the feminist 00:49:34 - Mao the grand strategist 00:58:12 - Yin and Yang analysis 01:02:14 - Q&A begins 01:05:16 - Why was Mao worse than Stalin? 01:11:42 - Yalta satisfied no-one 01:14:50 - Corrupt allies, ideologue enemies 01:16:29 - US indifference to the Nationalists 01:25:35 - Imagining a Nationalist mainland 01:28:21 - Communists cling to power 01:32:02 - Xi and Mao 01:38:13 - Making victims victimize themselves 01:42:15 - Journalists' naivete 01:46:16 - Visiting China then and now