DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459

Dylan Patel is the founder of SemiAnalysis, a research & analysis company specializing in semiconductors, GPUs, CPUs, and AI hardware. Nathan Lambert is a research scientist at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of a blog on AI called Interconnects. Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep459-sb See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc. *Transcript:* https://lexfridman.com/deepseek-dylan-patel-nathan-lambert-transcript *CONTACT LEX:* *Feedback* - give feedback to Lex: https://lexfridman.com/survey *AMA* - submit questions, videos or call-in: https://lexfridman.com/ama *Hiring* - join our team: https://lexfridman.com/hiring *Other* - other ways to get in touch: https://lexfridman.com/contact *EPISODE LINKS:* Dylan's X: https://x.com/dylan522p SemiAnalysis: https://semianalysis.com/ Nathan's X: https://x.com/natolambert Nathan's Blog: https://www.interconnects.ai/ Nathan's Podcast: https://www.interconnects.ai/podcast Nathan's Website: https://www.natolambert.com/ Nathan's YouTube: https://youtube.com/@natolambert Nathan's Book: https://rlhfbook.com/ *SPONSORS:* To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts: *Invideo AI:* AI video generator. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/invideoai-ep459-sb *GitHub:* Developer platform and AI code editor. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/github-ep459-sb *Shopify:* Sell stuff online. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/shopify-ep459-sb *NetSuite:* Business management software. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/netsuite-ep459-sb *AG1:* All-in-one daily nutrition drinks. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/ag1-ep459-sb *OUTLINE:* 0:00 - Introduction 3:33 - DeepSeek-R1 and DeepSeek-V3 25:07 - Low cost of training 51:25 - DeepSeek compute cluster 58:57 - Export controls on GPUs to China 1:09:16 - AGI timeline 1:18:41 - China's manufacturing capacity 1:26:36 - Cold war with China 1:31:05 - TSMC and Taiwan 1:54:44 - Best GPUs for AI 2:09:36 - Why DeepSeek is so cheap 2:22:55 - Espionage 2:31:57 - Censorship 2:44:52 - Andrej Karpathy and magic of RL 2:55:23 - OpenAI o3-mini vs DeepSeek r1 3:14:31 - NVIDIA 3:18:58 - GPU smuggling 3:25:36 - DeepSeek training on OpenAI data 3:36:04 - AI megaclusters 4:11:26 - Who wins the race to AGI? 4:21:39 - AI agents 4:30:21 - Programming and AI 4:37:49 - Open source 4:47:01 - Stargate 4:54:30 - Future of AI *PODCAST LINKS:* - Podcast Website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast - Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr - Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 - RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ - Podcast Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOdP_8GztsuKi9nrraNbKKp4 - Clips Channel: https://www.youtube.com/lexclips *SOCIAL LINKS:* - X: https://x.com/lexfridman - Instagram: https://instagram.com/lexfridman - TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@lexfridman - LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/lexfridman - Facebook: https://facebook.com/lexfridman - Patreon: https://patreon.com/lexfridman - Telegram: https://t.me/lexfridman - Reddit: https://reddit.com/r/lexfridman