How Evil Regimes Cling to Power (w/ Stephen Kotkin) | Shield of the Republic

Eric and Eliot welcome Stephen Kotkin, professor emeritus of history at Princeton University and senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and Freeman-Spogli Institute. They discuss his recent Foreign Affairs article, “The Weakness of the Strongmen: What Really Threatens Authoritarians?” Kotkin explores the frailty and resilience of authoritarian regimes through the lens of recent events in Venezuela and Iran, as well as the rise of Russia and China as authoritarian powers. They also discuss potential alternative future paths for Russia and turn to the current authoritarian temptation in the United States, along with the historic reasons for optimism that American democracy is robust enough to weather the depredations of the Trump administration. Eliot's Latest in The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/01/trump-greenland-europe-nato/685720/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPgGy7Ja9UMv_dSH1wXC41Rk&utm_ The Weakness of the Strongmen: What Really Threatens Authoritarians? https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/weakness-strongmen-stephen-kotkin The Five Futures of Russia: And How America Can Prepare for Whatever Comes Next https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/five-futures-russia-stephen-kotkin Stalin: Paradoxes of Power, 1878-1928 https://a.co/d/40CsvHC Stalin: Waiting for Hitler, 1929-1941 https://a.co/d/6IQt4nR Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Become a Bulwark Youtube Plus Member here - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCG4Hp1KbGw4e02N7FpPXDgQ/join Chapters: 00:00:00 Intro & “jackassery” of the week 00:04:18 Guest intro: Stephen Kotkin 00:06:02 Iran & Venezuela: why strongmen survive shocks 00:16:24 Post–Cold War mistakes: engaging Russia and China 00:25:14 Russia’s future: autocracy, ambition, and decline 00:38:09 The weak points of strongman rule 00:44:05 When authoritarian systems collapse into chaos 00:53:27 Could it happen here? 00:58:57 Closing thoughts