OpenAI's Statement SHOCK the Entire Industry! AI Riots vs "Moore's Law for Everything" by Sam Altman
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Top Comments (10)
God forbid I lose the job I hate doing every day.
I think the stage is set for a future where the majority of people will be under the total control of governments and corporations, that's what I'm scared of...
The biggest problem will be those who see themselves as superior bc of their wealth and ability to do things and own things that the majority of others people can not. They will not likely be willing to give that lens of superiority up.
The use of AI in espionage and warfare is so tempting that it is inevitable.
iunno, people early in the industrial revolution predicted we'd work less. we make everything we need more efficiently yet we don't work any less.
I don't know if someone mentioned where the Sam Altman quote about A.I. bringing about the end of the world came from but it was from 'Onstage at Open Air 2015 in a conversation with Mike Curtis, CTO of Airbnb'.
Hi Wes, I have watched probably a couple dozen of your videos at this point, usually anonymously. I think that you in particular come at this subject the most clear eyed and unbiased. There is near zero hype in your coverage. I appreciate your work on this subject. As a side note, I also enjoy your subtle puns. What I am about to write will be lengthy, and I get that most people won't want to read it in its entirety. So, I will include a synopsis. TL;DR: We cannot expect the government to solve our problems with AI. They are currently captured by capital and business interests. Even if they weren't captured, they would be too slow to regulate in a timely manner given how quickly AI will develop. Capital will never willingly give away power, control, and ownership. Economics rarely behave the way textbooks and economists would have you believe. Economics are like some old gods we created with fanciful stories that are supposed to explain how things work. The letter that was written by Sam Altman and his co-authors ignore these real problems. Also, a critical mistake the authors make, is believing that prices falling is a good thing. It is not. Most of the common people of the world are in some sort of debt, e.g. mortgages, student loans, credit cards, auto loans, et cetera. How can anyone repay these debts without income and with massive deflation? They cannot, and will be forced to own nothing. Do not expect Universal Basic Income to arrive on time, if ever. Humans have not evolved past cruelty in a mere 100-200 years. Expect a thirst for power and dominance unrivaled by the kingdoms of the past. Especially with autonomous soldiers at their disposal with no accountability. We are at a critical juncture, but to portray capitalism as the way forward, is near extinction level folly. :END TL;DR There are some things I wanted to get out of the way first. Why should you care what I think? Well, I have degrees in Finance and Information Technology. These are topics I have studied and are familiar with. In the past I have also lived in Silicon Valley and worked for investment firms. Back in 2017, people looked at me like I was an alien when I started talking about AI. Back then I was reading books by authors like: Ray Kurzweil, Max Tegmark, Nick Bostrom and Kai-Fu Lee. Their ideas and the implications of AI have been marinating in my grey matter for some time. I had even considered writing a book on the subject. Am I the penultimate authority on one particular subject matter? No. But, I see the more complete picture and very pragmatically. Most AI researchers tend to be thoughtful, good natured, and compassionate people. That is why their predictions tend to skew more positively. This is especially true for those that are extreme specialists. They see humanity progressing everyday and are very insulated from the dismal domain of regular people. We should not misinterpret their bias as to what reality will become. The same is true for capitalists. In their minds, the world of economics, financialization, pricing and labor are all natural facts of man. Never invented by man, but some how passed down on us from the divine. Immutable laws as it were. Modern economics is fundamentally flawed. Two of its major suppositions are laughable. Firstly, consumers and producers are rational. If you have ever met a human, you know this to be false. Especially if life and death are on the line, or Tickle Me Elmo… Second, is that infinite growth is possible. It is not. The Earth has finite mass and resources. This means that competition is not guaranteed. This then means that prices following free market theories are, also, not guaranteed. It is our duty to see resources rationally allocated in order to minimize human suffering, not ensure mega yachts for the most morally bankrupt among us. There is a reason why the Federal Reserve consistently has 2% inflation as its target. A slight inflation has the benefit of price stability, therefore consumers and producers can better predict expenditures. Too high of inflation and capital’s ability to predict markets based on return becomes difficult. Too much deflation, means that consumers in debt have a much heavier burden to pay back stifling demand (which is the basis of modern economies), and incentivizing capital to save for a return, rather than invest. Look at Japan’s deflationary economy and their problems. So, to have some gigantic deflationary event that pushes prices to the floor, while regular people have debt up to their eyeballs after years of easy credit, will be devastating. Imagine having to pay off a $300,000 mortgage with no income and now in real terms that $300,000 is more like $30,000,000. Yea, no thanks. Bankruptcy for everyone, yay! (Unless you have student loans then you’d better pray). Some may argue that it is now up to those in government to regulate and legislate these problems with AI. They will not in their current state. Almost all sovereign governments have become mills pumping out crony capitalism. Playing favorites with whomever bribes their campaigns the most and completely ignoring the will of the people. Why? Because some super small group of people in fancy robes were really good at not getting caught taking their bribes first. We cannot take our governments seriously enough to function as intended, let alone behave with extraordinary expedience and clarity. Even if they were functioning normally, I doubt their response would be rapid enough to blunt the worst of the economic disaster that is about to unfold. In the minds of many, but especially in the United States, Universal Basic Income, or any other social program, will be met with skepticism and disdain. Mind rot of “oh no that’s commie stuff, we ain’t gonna let that happen in merica” will surely be rampant. This hesitancy from the pre-programmed rugged individualists will tell everyone to pull themselves up by their bootstraps even if they don’t have shoes on their feet. What’s worse, is that the corporate media goons will feed this idea, even on the “left.” I get the sense from the loudest voices in the broad, meta-discussion that everything is more likely to turn out roses, rather than dystopian nightmare. Personally, I could not feel more opposite. As the world stands now, we are predisposed to follow the bad track towards dystopia at best and obliteration at worst. It is for the reasons mentioned above that I say this. If we as a people do not circumvent power structures that will be roadblocks and make real moves toward solving our own problems, humanity is lost to the worst among us. While I could probably write a whole book or thesis on this topic, I’m sure like 2 people will read this entire thing in a YouTube comment section. So, I will end it here with one last bit. Having lived in the Bay Area and feeling some of the animosity towards technologists, those people that lit that Waymo car on fire aren’t some anti-progress luddites. The normal people of Silicon Valley are tired of their cities being turned into playthings and testing grounds for ultra rich tech bros who seemingly don’t care about anyone but themselves. They are tired of their needs being ignored and outsiders with stacks of cash being treated with white gloves. They are tired of working crap jobs, to barely tread water, while someone treats their city and home like an experiment. Most of all, they are tired of being the ones feeling the negative outcomes of some supposed public good, only to never gain from that good. P.S. Martin Shkreli totally meant what he wrote and probably thought he was cool for doing so.
It can't be stopped. We could, at the national level, control it. The computational resources needed to train AGI will be too large to hide in a basement. But other nations won't stop. And neither will the US. No-one can afford to be a laggard. So it's full speed ahead. One thing that bugs me: where the heck are the economists? I don't think they got the memo.
The Owners of society will never pay for the people’s needs, let alone wants, after their labor is no longer needed.
I don’t think the big corporations will want to lower their prices and earn less
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Top Comments (10)
God forbid I lose the job I hate doing every day.
I think the stage is set for a future where the majority of people will be under the total control of governments and corporations, that's what I'm scared of...
The biggest problem will be those who see themselves as superior bc of their wealth and ability to do things and own things that the majority of others people can not. They will not likely be willing to give that lens of superiority up.
The use of AI in espionage and warfare is so tempting that it is inevitable.
iunno, people early in the industrial revolution predicted we'd work less. we make everything we need more efficiently yet we don't work any less.
I don't know if someone mentioned where the Sam Altman quote about A.I. bringing about the end of the world came from but it was from 'Onstage at Open Air 2015 in a conversation with Mike Curtis, CTO of Airbnb'.
Hi Wes, I have watched probably a couple dozen of your videos at this point, usually anonymously. I think that you in particular come at this subject the most clear eyed and unbiased. There is near zero hype in your coverage. I appreciate your work on this subject. As a side note, I also enjoy your subtle puns. What I am about to write will be lengthy, and I get that most people won't want to read it in its entirety. So, I will include a synopsis. TL;DR: We cannot expect the government to solve our problems with AI. They are currently captured by capital and business interests. Even if they weren't captured, they would be too slow to regulate in a timely manner given how quickly AI will develop. Capital will never willingly give away power, control, and ownership. Economics rarely behave the way textbooks and economists would have you believe. Economics are like some old gods we created with fanciful stories that are supposed to explain how things work. The letter that was written by Sam Altman and his co-authors ignore these real problems. Also, a critical mistake the authors make, is believing that prices falling is a good thing. It is not. Most of the common people of the world are in some sort of debt, e.g. mortgages, student loans, credit cards, auto loans, et cetera. How can anyone repay these debts without income and with massive deflation? They cannot, and will be forced to own nothing. Do not expect Universal Basic Income to arrive on time, if ever. Humans have not evolved past cruelty in a mere 100-200 years. Expect a thirst for power and dominance unrivaled by the kingdoms of the past. Especially with autonomous soldiers at their disposal with no accountability. We are at a critical juncture, but to portray capitalism as the way forward, is near extinction level folly. :END TL;DR There are some things I wanted to get out of the way first. Why should you care what I think? Well, I have degrees in Finance and Information Technology. These are topics I have studied and are familiar with. In the past I have also lived in Silicon Valley and worked for investment firms. Back in 2017, people looked at me like I was an alien when I started talking about AI. Back then I was reading books by authors like: Ray Kurzweil, Max Tegmark, Nick Bostrom and Kai-Fu Lee. Their ideas and the implications of AI have been marinating in my grey matter for some time. I had even considered writing a book on the subject. Am I the penultimate authority on one particular subject matter? No. But, I see the more complete picture and very pragmatically. Most AI researchers tend to be thoughtful, good natured, and compassionate people. That is why their predictions tend to skew more positively. This is especially true for those that are extreme specialists. They see humanity progressing everyday and are very insulated from the dismal domain of regular people. We should not misinterpret their bias as to what reality will become. The same is true for capitalists. In their minds, the world of economics, financialization, pricing and labor are all natural facts of man. Never invented by man, but some how passed down on us from the divine. Immutable laws as it were. Modern economics is fundamentally flawed. Two of its major suppositions are laughable. Firstly, consumers and producers are rational. If you have ever met a human, you know this to be false. Especially if life and death are on the line, or Tickle Me Elmo… Second, is that infinite growth is possible. It is not. The Earth has finite mass and resources. This means that competition is not guaranteed. This then means that prices following free market theories are, also, not guaranteed. It is our duty to see resources rationally allocated in order to minimize human suffering, not ensure mega yachts for the most morally bankrupt among us. There is a reason why the Federal Reserve consistently has 2% inflation as its target. A slight inflation has the benefit of price stability, therefore consumers and producers can better predict expenditures. Too high of inflation and capital’s ability to predict markets based on return becomes difficult. Too much deflation, means that consumers in debt have a much heavier burden to pay back stifling demand (which is the basis of modern economies), and incentivizing capital to save for a return, rather than invest. Look at Japan’s deflationary economy and their problems. So, to have some gigantic deflationary event that pushes prices to the floor, while regular people have debt up to their eyeballs after years of easy credit, will be devastating. Imagine having to pay off a $300,000 mortgage with no income and now in real terms that $300,000 is more like $30,000,000. Yea, no thanks. Bankruptcy for everyone, yay! (Unless you have student loans then you’d better pray). Some may argue that it is now up to those in government to regulate and legislate these problems with AI. They will not in their current state. Almost all sovereign governments have become mills pumping out crony capitalism. Playing favorites with whomever bribes their campaigns the most and completely ignoring the will of the people. Why? Because some super small group of people in fancy robes were really good at not getting caught taking their bribes first. We cannot take our governments seriously enough to function as intended, let alone behave with extraordinary expedience and clarity. Even if they were functioning normally, I doubt their response would be rapid enough to blunt the worst of the economic disaster that is about to unfold. In the minds of many, but especially in the United States, Universal Basic Income, or any other social program, will be met with skepticism and disdain. Mind rot of “oh no that’s commie stuff, we ain’t gonna let that happen in merica” will surely be rampant. This hesitancy from the pre-programmed rugged individualists will tell everyone to pull themselves up by their bootstraps even if they don’t have shoes on their feet. What’s worse, is that the corporate media goons will feed this idea, even on the “left.” I get the sense from the loudest voices in the broad, meta-discussion that everything is more likely to turn out roses, rather than dystopian nightmare. Personally, I could not feel more opposite. As the world stands now, we are predisposed to follow the bad track towards dystopia at best and obliteration at worst. It is for the reasons mentioned above that I say this. If we as a people do not circumvent power structures that will be roadblocks and make real moves toward solving our own problems, humanity is lost to the worst among us. While I could probably write a whole book or thesis on this topic, I’m sure like 2 people will read this entire thing in a YouTube comment section. So, I will end it here with one last bit. Having lived in the Bay Area and feeling some of the animosity towards technologists, those people that lit that Waymo car on fire aren’t some anti-progress luddites. The normal people of Silicon Valley are tired of their cities being turned into playthings and testing grounds for ultra rich tech bros who seemingly don’t care about anyone but themselves. They are tired of their needs being ignored and outsiders with stacks of cash being treated with white gloves. They are tired of working crap jobs, to barely tread water, while someone treats their city and home like an experiment. Most of all, they are tired of being the ones feeling the negative outcomes of some supposed public good, only to never gain from that good. P.S. Martin Shkreli totally meant what he wrote and probably thought he was cool for doing so.
It can't be stopped. We could, at the national level, control it. The computational resources needed to train AGI will be too large to hide in a basement. But other nations won't stop. And neither will the US. No-one can afford to be a laggard. So it's full speed ahead. One thing that bugs me: where the heck are the economists? I don't think they got the memo.
The Owners of society will never pay for the people’s needs, let alone wants, after their labor is no longer needed.
I don’t think the big corporations will want to lower their prices and earn less