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@Asianometry & Dylan Patel — How the semiconductor industry actually works

2024-10-02 Science & Technology
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Dwarkesh Patel
Dwarkesh Patel
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Description

Dylan Patel runs Semianalysis, the leading publication and research firm on AI hardware: https://www.semianalysis.com/. Jon Y runs @Asianometry, the world’s best YouTube channel on semiconductors and business history. 𝐄𝐏𝐈𝐒𝐎𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐊𝐒 * Transcript: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/dylan-jon * Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dylan-patel-jon-asianometry-how-the-semiconductor/id1516093381?i=1000671564456 * Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6q1XODE2L5bqqBwe7434S7?si=seXQ6K_LQZeAV6776H6MhQ * Me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp 𝐒𝐏𝐎𝐍𝐒𝐎𝐑𝐒 * Jane Street is looking to hire their next generation of leaders. Their deep learning team is looking for FPGA programmers, CUDA programmers, and ML researchers. To learn more about their full time roles, internship, tech podcast, and upcoming Kaggle competition, go here: https://jane-st.co/dwarkesh * Stripe builds financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue. Learn more here: https://stripe.com/ If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/advertise 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒 00:00:00 – Xi’s path to AGI 00:05:05 – Liang Mong Song 00:09:10 – How semiconductors get better 00:12:01 – China can centralize compute 00:19:35 – Export controls & sanctions 00:33:36 – Huawei’s intense culture 00:39:36 – Why the semiconductor industry is so stratified 00:41:43 – N2 should not exist 00:46:38 – Taiwan invasion hypothetical 00:50:06 – Mind-boggling complexity of semiconductors 00:59:58 – Chip architecture design 01:05:21 – Architectures lead to different AI models? China vs. US 01:10:57 – Being head of compute at an AI lab 01:17:09 – Scaling costs and power demand 01:37:50 – Are we financing an AI bubble? 01:51:05 – Starting Asianometry and SemiAnalysis 02:06:55 – Opportunities in the semiconductor stack

Top Comments (10)

@shabelaw1111 2024-10-02

Feels like you need a security clearance for this episode

1.6k 20 replies
@Peter-jc4by 2024-10-02

Dwarkesh achieved rare lore for getting these 2 guys together. +10k aura.

611 3 replies
@musicdev 2024-10-03

Hi, HPC guy for a big US semiconductor firm here. There's a point at which John and Dylan talk about how the tech stack for tools in the industry is old, and people are terrified of touching it. I just wanted to come here to say this is absolutely true. We have entire teams that use things as old as RHEL 5 because they're scared if they update, their ancient versions of Cadence and Synopsys software won't work. There's a little bit of truth to this, but the two also speak about how the entire industry essentially runs like a series of apprenticeships, and I'd like to explain what that looks like in practice. The process usually goes something like this: 1. Someone comes in has to come up with some process for doing something, like setting up a toolchain in a specific way 2. That person teaches the people under them to do things their specific way 3. Said person leaves the company after 20 years 4. The toolchain LITERALLY never updates because the people who work at the company now don't actually know how it works so it's essentially magic Other industries have more public documentation on how their processes work (hell, Big Tech often publishes their software as open-source), so people can come in who understand the processes. This is not the case for the semiconductor industry, so things stay black magic. I can't push people off of RHEL 5 because their black magic probably only works on RHEL 5, so we keep RHEL 5 servers around. It's not that we don't update, we do have RHEL 8, but there are all these small pockets of ancient technology that everything else relies on. The Linux greybeards like me can keep ancient servers running, but I don't understand ANYTHING about modern EDA software, as I'm not an EE guy, and the EE people don't know anything about Linux because they're not software people, so we're a bunch of wizards who don't know how each other's magic works but somehow the magic has to work anyway. Guys, this industry is insane

1.0k 50 replies
@arealbigboss 2024-10-03

I didn’t expect Jon to look like a Taiwanese uncle who is a high roller at several major casinos

442 9 replies
@absbi0000 2024-10-02

So odd to see Asianometry speaking so casually. Great interview!

467 7 replies
@gunaysoni6792 2024-10-02

I love Asianometry

959 13 replies
@johnhammes4567 2024-10-06

You know a podcast audience is legit when the sponsor is freaking Jane Street looking for employees

541 8 replies
@actually_it_is_rocket_science 2024-10-03

This feels so weird. A: never seen asianometry and b: hes not talking in his expert tone.

131 3 replies
@afterglow5285 2024-10-02

Imagine the trade secrets you can get from Dylan when he is drunk.

398 10 replies
@moneypowertron 2024-10-02

Please do an episode with Asianometry alone. Jon barely got to speak! I enjoyed the firehose of knowledge from Dylan "delusionally ripping it" Patel but would really appreciate hearing more of Jon's perspective. clarity edit: I'm not calling Dylan delusional; but as he says, "life is just more fun when you're delusionally ripping the bong and feeling the AGI" 😂

413 20 replies

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